Oct 13
2008

Canadian and Mexican Economy Very Strong

Posted by: pamela

Tagged in: Mexico , Canada

Canadian markets hold up well

Strong banks, commodities help stocks weather storm

Derek Abma, Canwest News Service

Published: Thursday, October 02, 2008

OTTAWA -- News flash: World stock markets are not doing well this year. However, it might surprise some to learn that North American markets, and Canada in particular, have been holding up strong in comparison with markets in other parts of the world.

Adrian Mastracci, portfolio manager with KCM Wealth Management in Vancouver, on Wednesday released a comparison of 13 global stock indexes with their year-to-date losses as of the end of the third quarter, which was Tuesday.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's benchmark, with a 15 per cent loss, was the second-least damaged measure on the list after Mexico's, which was down 13.9 per cent.

Filling the next three positions, in terms of least harm done, were the main stock measures of American markets. The Dow Jones industrial average was off by 18.2 per cent, the S&P 500 down 20.7 per cent and the Nasdaq composite index was in the hole by 21.5 per cent.

"While it's no consolation, North American markets are holding up better than their counterparts," Mastracci said in a note.

China's main Shanghai index was the worst performer, losing 56.3 per cent during the year's first three quarters. India followed at 36.7 per cent, and the Hong Kong index wasn't far behind with a 35.2 per cent loss.

Mastracci said in an interview that different regions had their own reasons for performing the way they did. He said the Shanghai index, being largely closed to foreigners and with its "speculative" nature, is "like a casino for the Chinese." Prior to this year's drop-off, it almost doubled its value in 2007.

With India, Mastracci said that country's infrastructure, such as roads, are not keeping up with its economic growth, and this is causing some investors to take their money elsewhere.

Mastracci said the Canadian stock market has been saved by its strong commodities market and because banks have not been hurt as much by the global credit crisis due to their more conservative nature.

He noted that a good deal of these global losses came in September, when the U.S. financial crisis manifest itself in things like the U.S. government takeovers of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and insurance giant AIG, along the bankruptcy-protection filing of Lehman Bros. The S&P/TSX composite index for Toronto lost 14.7 per cent during the month, a vast majority of its year-to-date loss of 15 per cent.

"(September) was downright volatile and ugly," Mastracci said. "A lot of market values and long-standing institutions withered away."

Mastracci predicted volatility on the markets would continue for the remainder of the year, and economic conditions may worsen. He said global growth might be dragged down by a U.S. recession.

"The definitive lack of market confidence is deafening," he said. "Look for consumers to slow down the spending pace."

- - -

YEAR-TO-DATE LOSSES

- China (Shanghai) -56.3%

- India -36.7%

- Hong Kong -35.2%

- France -28.2%

- Germany -27.7%

- Japan -26.4%

- U.K. -24.1%

- Brazil -22.6%

- Nasdaq -21.5%

- S&P 500 -20.7%

- Dow Jones -18.2%

- Toronto -15%

- Mexico -13.9%

Source: KCM Wealth Management Inc.



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